2026 FIFA World Cup · Knockout Stage

Every path to the final

From the Round of 16 to the trophy: all 16 teams still standing, every result, mapped as one converging flow instead of a bracket.

16
Teams
15
Matches
41
Goals scored
ESP
Champion
The finding
2.61 xG

Brazil created more expected goals than any losing team in the entire knockout stage - 2.61 xG against Norway’s 1.05in the Round of 16 - and lost anyway, 2-1. xG measures who created the better chances, not who wins; the knockout stage doesn’t care which one you were.

Spain is the opposite story: the highest cumulative xG created of any team in this stretch (7.6) and the lowest allowed among anyone who reached the Semifinal or further (1.5). Dominant and efficient, all the way to the trophy.

Every path to the final

All 16 teams left in the tournament from the Round of 16 on, drawn as a flow instead of a bracket. Every team’s run - winner or loser - is a curve aimed at wherever it fed into next; eliminated teams’ paths visibly merge into whoever beat them. Dot size is goals scored that match, color intensity is that match’s xG. Spainis the one thread every other team’s run eventually flows into, beating Argentina in the Final.

Round of 16QFSFFinalMARMorocco — Round of 16: 3-0, 0.82 xGCANCanada — Round of 16: 0-3, 0.84 xG (eliminated)FRAFrance — Round of 16: 1-0, 1.45 xGPARParaguay — Round of 16: 0-1, 0.13 xG (eliminated)NORNorway — Round of 16: 2-1, 1.05 xGBRABrazil — Round of 16: 1-2, 2.61 xG (eliminated)ENGEngland — Round of 16: 3-2, 1.61 xGMEXMexico — Round of 16: 2-3, 1.88 xG (eliminated)ESPSpain — Round of 16: 1-0, 1.69 xGPORPortugal — Round of 16: 0-1, 0.63 xG (eliminated)BELBelgium — Round of 16: 4-1, 2.01 xGUSAUnited States — Round of 16: 1-4, 0.63 xG (eliminated)ARGArgentina — Round of 16: 3-2, 2.84 xGEGYEgypt — Round of 16: 2-3, 0.89 xG (eliminated)SUISwitzerland — Round of 16: 0-0, 0.39 xGCOLColombia — Round of 16: 0-0, 1.09 xG (eliminated)FRAFrance — Quarterfinal: 2-0, 3.69 xGMARMorocco — Quarterfinal: 0-2, 0.14 xG (eliminated)ESPSpain — Quarterfinal: 2-1, 1.96 xGBELBelgium — Quarterfinal: 1-2, 0.34 xG (eliminated)ENGEngland — Quarterfinal: 2-1, 1.04 xGNORNorway — Quarterfinal: 1-2, 0.68 xG (eliminated)ARGArgentina — Quarterfinal: 3-1, 1.94 xGSUISwitzerland — Quarterfinal: 1-3, 0.47 xG (eliminated)ESPSpain — Semifinal: 2-0, 1.63 xGFRAFrance — Semifinal: 0-2, 0.31 xG (eliminated)ARGArgentina — Semifinal: 2-1, 1.59 xGENGEngland — Semifinal: 1-2, 0.53 xG (eliminated)ESP ★Spain — Final: 1-0, 2.29 xG (Champion)ARGArgentina — Final: 0-1, 0.22 xG (eliminated)
Won that round EliminatedDot size = goals scoredColor = xG that match
What actually produces goals

Every team’s performance in every match, one dot each (30 total) - does having the ball, passing accurately, or creating high-quality chances actually correlate with goals scored? xG does, moderately (r = 0.58) - it’s literally modeled on shot quality, so that’s expected. Possession barely does at all (r = 0.26) - controlling the ball and converting it into goals turned out to be two very different skills across this knockout stage.

Possessionr = 0.26
4024%76%Canada: 44.7%, 0 goalsMorocco: 55.3%, 3 goalsParaguay: 24.1%, 0 goalsFrance: 75.9%, 1 goalBrazil: 33.6%, 1 goalNorway: 66.4%, 2 goalsMexico: 66.9%, 2 goalsEngland: 33.1%, 3 goalsPortugal: 44.6%, 0 goalsSpain: 55.4%, 1 goalUnited States: 55.9%, 1 goalBelgium: 44.1%, 4 goalsArgentina: 63.6%, 3 goalsEgypt: 36.4%, 2 goalsSwitzerland: 53.4%, 0 goalsColombia: 46.6%, 0 goalsFrance: 48%, 2 goalsMorocco: 52%, 0 goalsSpain: 67.9%, 2 goalsBelgium: 32.1%, 1 goalNorway: 47.6%, 1 goalEngland: 52.4%, 2 goalsArgentina: 59%, 3 goalsSwitzerland: 41%, 1 goalFrance: 49.1%, 0 goalsSpain: 50.9%, 2 goalsEngland: 35.8%, 1 goalArgentina: 64.2%, 2 goalsSpain: 65.1%, 1 goalArgentina: 34.9%, 0 goals
Almost none relationship with goals scored
Pass accuracyr = 0.27
4050%90%Canada: 80%, 0 goalsMorocco: 80%, 3 goalsParaguay: 50%, 0 goalsFrance: 90%, 1 goalBrazil: 80%, 1 goalNorway: 90%, 2 goalsMexico: 90%, 2 goalsEngland: 80%, 3 goalsPortugal: 80%, 0 goalsSpain: 90%, 1 goalUnited States: 90%, 1 goalBelgium: 80%, 4 goalsArgentina: 90%, 3 goalsEgypt: 80%, 2 goalsSwitzerland: 90%, 0 goalsColombia: 80%, 0 goalsFrance: 90%, 2 goalsMorocco: 90%, 0 goalsSpain: 90%, 2 goalsBelgium: 80%, 1 goalNorway: 90%, 1 goalEngland: 90%, 2 goalsArgentina: 90%, 3 goalsSwitzerland: 80%, 1 goalFrance: 80%, 0 goalsSpain: 90%, 2 goalsEngland: 80%, 1 goalArgentina: 90%, 2 goalsSpain: 90%, 1 goalArgentina: 80%, 0 goals
Almost none relationship with goals scored
Expected goals (xG)r = 0.58
4004Canada: 0.84, 0 goalsMorocco: 0.82, 3 goalsParaguay: 0.13, 0 goalsFrance: 1.45, 1 goalBrazil: 2.61, 1 goalNorway: 1.05, 2 goalsMexico: 1.88, 2 goalsEngland: 1.61, 3 goalsPortugal: 0.63, 0 goalsSpain: 1.69, 1 goalUnited States: 0.63, 1 goalBelgium: 2.01, 4 goalsArgentina: 2.84, 3 goalsEgypt: 0.89, 2 goalsSwitzerland: 0.39, 0 goalsColombia: 1.09, 0 goalsFrance: 3.69, 2 goalsMorocco: 0.14, 0 goalsSpain: 1.96, 2 goalsBelgium: 0.34, 1 goalNorway: 0.68, 1 goalEngland: 1.04, 2 goalsArgentina: 1.94, 3 goalsSwitzerland: 0.47, 1 goalFrance: 0.31, 0 goalsSpain: 1.63, 2 goalsEngland: 0.53, 1 goalArgentina: 1.59, 2 goalsSpain: 2.29, 1 goalArgentina: 0.22, 0 goals
Moderate relationship with goals scored

r = Pearson correlation with goals scored that match. 1.0 would be a perfect relationship, 0 would be none.

How every team got there

Every team from the Round of 16 on, ranked by how far they got. xG is only as reliable as ESPN’s model, but it’s the clearest single read on who actually created the better chances, win or lose.

Goals and xG are shown as scored–conceded — the bold number is what that team put in the net (or was expected to), the dim one is what they let in.

Team
Reached
Goals
xG
Poss.
Cards
ESPSpain★
Champion
6–1
7.6–1.5
59.8%
4
ARGArgentina
Final
8–5
6.6–4.2
55.4%
10+1
FRAFrance
Semifinal
3–2
5.4–1.9
57.7%
5
ENGEngland
Semifinal
6–5
3.2–4.2
40.4%
5+1
BELBelgium
Quarterfinal
5–3
2.3–2.6
38.1%
2
MARMorocco
Quarterfinal
3–2
1.0–4.5
53.7%
5
NORNorway
Quarterfinal
3–3
1.7–3.6
57%
1
SUISwitzerland
Quarterfinal
1–3
0.9–3.0
47.2%
4+1
COLColombia
Round of 16
0–0
1.1–0.4
46.6%
2
PARParaguay
Round of 16
0–1
0.1–1.4
24.1%
0
BRABrazil
Round of 16
1–2
2.6–1.1
33.6%
1
MEXMexico
Round of 16
2–3
1.9–1.6
66.9%
2
PORPortugal
Round of 16
0–1
0.6–1.7
44.6%
2
EGYEgypt
Round of 16
2–3
0.9–2.8
36.4%
4
CANCanada
Round of 16
0–3
0.8–0.8
44.7%
4
USAUnited States
Round of 16
1–4
0.6–2.0
55.9%
2
Every match, in detail

Filter by round, tap a match for goal scorers, cards, team stats, and shot-by-shot detail.

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA · Winner: Spain
Goals
  • Ferran Torres (Spain)106'
Cards
  • Lisandro Martínez (yellow, Argentina)41'
  • Leandro Paredes (yellow, Argentina)52'
  • Enzo Fernández (yellow, Argentina)82'
  • Cristian Romero (yellow, Argentina)90'+2'
  • Enzo Fernández (2nd yellow → red, Argentina)90'+3'
  • Alexis Mac Allister (yellow, Argentina)111'
ESPTeam statsARG
20
Shots
212
Shots on target
065.1%
Possession
34.9%853
Passes
46490%
Pass accuracy
80%21
Fouls
250
Yellow cards
40
Red cards
19
Corners
42.29
xG
0.22

Methodology

Covers the 2026 FIFA World Cup men’s tournament from the Round of 16 through the Final only - 15 matches, the 16 teams that were still alive at that point. Goals, cards, and box-score stats (possession, shots, passes, tackles, interceptions, clearances, fouls, corners) are sourced directly from ESPN’s structured match-event feed. Expected goals (xG) and the full shot-by-shot log behind each match’s Shot Quality and Shot Outcomes tabs are sourced separately from ESPN’s team-stats breakdown for each match, since neither is included in the same feed as everything else.

Spain’s four matches in this stretch (vs Portugal, Belgium, France, and Argentina in the Final) were already fully sourced for the companion Spain 2026 World Cup dashboard and reused here rather than re-fetched. The network chart’s layout is computed directly from the real bracket pairings in the match data, not a force simulation or a hand-placed diagram - it will always reflect exactly what the underlying results say.